Forecast can be manually entered in forrecast detail or can be generate it automatically based on historical demand information, such as inventory transactions. You can then load these forecasts into another forecast or into a master schedule.

Methods of generating forecasts
The two methods of generating forecasts are:
1. Focus forecasting – which produces only single period forecasts.
There are many ways to forecast future demand based on the past. It is sometimes difficult to decide which forecasting method to use. Focus forecasting decides the optimal method for compiling your forecasts.
The focus forecasting technique simulates alternate forecasting methods on prior periods for which the actual demand is known. It then chooses the forecasting method that would have produced the most accurate forecast for that period.

2. Statistical forecasting – which you can use to forecast any number of periods into the future.
Statistical forecasting methods provide an alternate method that is based on a more mathematical model called exponential smoothing forecast (ESF) or alpha smoothing forecast. The statistical forecasts available are:
• Exponential smoothing forecast (ESF)
• Trend–enhanced forecast (TEF)
• Season–enhanced forecast (SEF)
• Trend and season–enhanced forecast (TSEF)

Defining Forecast Rules
Before you can generate a focus or statistical forecast, you first define a forecast rule in Oracle Inventory. Forecast rules define the bucket type, forecast method, and the sources of demand. If the rule is a statistical forecast, the exponential smoothing factor (alpha), trend smoothing factor (beta), and seasonality smoothing factor (gamma) are also part of the rule.

1. Enter a unique name for the rule.

2. Indicate whether the bucket type is days, weeks, or periods.

3. Determine the transaction types to use as demand sources. The quantities associated with each source are used when calculating historical usage:
Sales Order Shipments: Includes sales order issue quantities.
Issues to WIP: Includes WIP issue quantities.
Miscellaneous Issues: Includes quantities issued with user–defined. transaction sources, account numbers, and account aliases.
Inter–Org Transfers: Includes quantities issued to other organizations.

4. Indicate the forecast method to use:
Focus: Uses focus forecasting algorithms to forecast demand for the item. This procedure tests the selected items against a number of forecasting techniques and chooses the best one, based on history, as the technique to forecast future demand.
Statistical: Uses exponential smoothing, trend, and seasonality algorithms to forecast demand for the item
Additional Information for Statistical Forecast Rules If the forecast rule is statistical, some additional information may be
required:

• alpha smoothing factor
• beta smoothing factor, if the forecast is trend–enhanced
• gamma smoothing factor, if the forecast is season–enhanced
• initial seasonality indices, if the forecast is season–enhanced
• number of past periods to use in forecast calculations

Generating a Forecast

Select an overwrite option:
All Entries: Deletes everything on the forecast before loading new information.
No: Deletes nothing and adds new entries to existing entries during the load. Schedule entries are not combined. You can get multiple forecast entries for the same item on the same day.
Same Source Only: Deletes the entries that have the same source as those you load. You can replace entries on the forecast that were previously loaded from the same source without affecting other entries on the forecast.